Individual Transportation Decisions under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

Strawderman, L., Carruth, D. W., Sherman-Morris, K., Menard, P., Warkentin, M., & McNeal, K. S. (2018). Individual Transportation Decisions under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty. Natural Hazards. Springer. 92, 927. DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3232-0.

This study explores the influence of three factors on a person’s decision to drive in winter weather: destination, affected area, and caution level. Participants (n = 555) completed an online survey that included scenarios with text of a simulated radio message involving a character named Mike. After the scenario, participants answered Likert-scaled questions related to their intention to drive (what would you do) and their recommended behavior for others (what should Mike do). There was a significant effect of destination and caution level on the decision to drive. Participants were more likely to respond that they would drive if the destination was work rather than dinner, and if the caution statement was “exercise caution” rather than “do not drive.” There were similar significant effects of destination and caution level on what the scenario character should do. It is recommended that a clear directive be included in warning messages to encourage drivers to stay off the roadways during hazardous weather.